The third global summit on climate change has begun its meetings in Paris. Unlike the two previous summits, in Kyoto (1997) and Copenhagen (2009), there is optimism that an agreement under the auspices of the United Nations might be reached. (Paris Deal Important First Step).
This optimism apparently has its origin, in substantial part, based on an agreement between the United States and China, the two largest carbon pollution emitters in the world. Yet, while the President may have made inroads to persuading China that emissions reductions are merited, and he has also put his own Clean Power Plan into regulations that may survive court challenge, he has been unsuccessful in pulling together a political majority that recognizes and seeks to act on issues related to climate change.
The leadership in the House and the Senate are squarely opposed to any position that might affect U.S. industry or its economy. (The Hill). The House is scheduled to vote today on two joint resolutions to disapprove EPA regulations on emissions for new and existing electric power plants. (Majority Leader's Floor Schedule). And last Friday, Senate Majority Leader McConell laid out a reminder that the Senate would certainly not go along with any treaty that may come out of the Paris conference. (Op-Ed).
Indeed, the legal debate rages over to what extent any agreements made in Paris would become enforceable in the United States. (Washington Post). This divide is not necessarily merely political, but it does reflect recent polling indicating the sharp party-line split over the climate debate. A Washington Post-ABC News Poll indicates that, while 8 in 10 persons identifying themselves as Democrats believe global warming is a serious problem, nearly 6 in 10 Republicans say it is not.
And, of the latter group, apparently two-thirds think there is "a lot of disagreement" among scientists over the existence of global warming, or at least the likelihood that such warming is caused by human activity. [A January 2015 report from the Pew Research Center indicates that 87% of scientists connected to the American Association for the Advancement of Science believe that climate change is mostly due to human activity.]
Interestingly, Post-ABC survey finds that the biggest partisan disagreements exist among those with more education with Democratic-leaning college grads 43 percentage points more likely than Americans who lean Republican to say scientists agree on global warming. [As a side note, this may dispel the perception that all liberal arts majors are Democrats.]
The likelihood of success in Paris seems greater than a translation of that success in the United States, and thus, at least within the U. S., the entire process may be doomed from the outset.